ࡱ> RTQE@ bjbj "42222222F4F`F2********EEEEEEE$GRIF2c**ccF22**FI"I"I"c^2*2*EI"cEI".I"w"w;22=* FF/<E0F0`FG<\J 8J0=FF2222J2=<*|I"ll***FFFF$ jd?" FFjSeptember 15, 2006 Aspen Luxury Home Market Recent Highlights Under Contract 1121 Red Mountain Road listed for $21,500,000, over $2000/sf 1422 Red Mountain Rd listed for $23,000,000, over $2000/sf Aspen Valley Downs Lot 4 listed for $22,000,000, $1,833.33/sf 142 Wrights Road listed for $17,750,000, $2,006.56/sf Sold 205 Shady Lane listed at $22,500,000, $3000/sf Crystal Island Ranch in Carbondale sold for $47,000,000 142 East Reds Road Home sold for $16,200,000, $2191.50/sf A 15,000sf White Horse Springs Home sold at $19,200,000 New Listings Prince Bandars Starwood Estate listed for $135,000,000 West Buttermilk Home under construction for $41,000,000, $2,700/sf Other projects in the works in Starwood and West Buttermilk are asking over $2000/sf and over $30,000,000 Residences at Little Nell, fractional ownerships: 57% sold out. The four bedrooms sold out except for four months at $2,400,000 per month Market Characteristics Our market analysis of 2005 is that Aspens appreciation amounted to 15-20%, Snowmass had approximately 25% appreciation. In 2006 to date Aspen appreciation is about 25%, Snowmasss is 33%. The forces driving this appreciation are the very high demand brought on by a healthy national economy and a scarcity of quality resorts within the United States that have world class amenities. Aspen satisfies across the board from recreational through cultural and has strictly limited growth. This is the fourth ten year cycle I have experienced in the Aspen real estate market. All began the decade with a consolidation phase after a high appreciation period at the end of the previous decade. There is consolidation of the previous decades gains in the first 2-4 years, consolidation then gives way to absorption, which becomes a shortage followed in the later half of the decade by significant appreciation. The baby boomers are reaching retirement age, the first wave is turning 60 and Aspen is a number one choice of baby boomer population looking for an active retirement. Boomers are buying with plans for very long holding periods, they do not intend to resell. Aspen/Snowmass real estate appreciation is manifesting itself as predicted. We are leaving the inventory absorption period and entering the inventory scarcity-appreciation period. This appreciation could last 3 to 10 years due to the boomer retirement phenomenon Demand should remain extremely high as the US economy has generated a vast amount of wealth from record profits and rising property values. Liquidity is at an all time high for both individuals and corporations. No one is comfortable with the stock market after the debockle of 2001, a significant percentage of the wealth will find its way into Aspen Real Estate. Aspen and Snowmass allow no new growth except in very limited areas. When growth occurs it spurs rapid appreciation as the Snowmass Base Village Project shows. Now that construction has begun, Snowmass property values have jumped. Snowmass improvements include many amenities, new lift systems for the mountain and village. Base Villages condominiums have experienced very strong sales. Once construction began prices were increased 15-20%/unit. Only a few of the contracts fell through; most of the Buyers stayed and paid the higher price. A cloud on the horizon is the weakness in the real estate markets in the north and northeast due to retiring boomers migrating to the west and south. This will cause a long term dampening of north and eastern property values for the next 5-15 years. It will be awkward for north and eastern owners to see the value of their homes decline or not appreciate much while the more desirable west and south will continue to appreciate. The market is on the move and the appraisers have fallen behind. Home Market Characteristics Construction costs for state of the art homes range from $600-$1000/sf. All of Pitkin County was recently downzoned to 5750 sf without the application of additional TDRs. This includes Red Mountain, the Pitkin Green area and the metro area. Select areas can expand to 15,000 sf Aspen has very few completed, new, large, quality homes as almost no new construction commenced from the years 2000-2004. The few great homes that have come on the market are selling for very strong prices. We are now looking at pricing in the $1400-1700/sf for good older product, $2000/sf is common for new projects and $2500-3000/sf is not unheard of. A $3000/sf older luxury home is under contract. A large number of homes are under construction. Most of the significant homes will not be completed for a year or two. The total construction cost of these homes is approaching $2000/sf . Thus is reason to believe the average new home selling price will not be moving from $2000 to $3000/sf within the next few years. Buyers in very large numbers are coming out of the timeshare projects as they realize they want to spend much more time in Aspen. The ability to build large homes continues to be further curtailed while demand for larger homes is strong. Condominium Market Characteristics Well priced condominiums in Aspen and Snowmass often sell within days; usually within a month. Land Characteristics Land is in extremely short supply throughout the valley, especially prime building sites. There is no more land in Pitkin County for subdivision into more than five sites. Land in Snowmass has appreciated dramatically. Two Creek lots were selling below $2,000,000 a year and half ago and now they are in the $3,000,000- $4,000,000 range. Horse Ranch lots that sold for $950,000 a year and half ago are now closing for $2,000,000 per lot. Thus the Snowmass appreciation of 33% is low when applied to some market segments. ./ABCQRS  D G H M N O    - / 0 < = > E u v x ƾƺʲƺƮƦםƙ™hy hNLhNLhNLh T h"a5h2khNL5hGEjhNhJshth|hCh|hhNLh|h5 hNL5hNLhNL5 h|h5 hwz5 h>* hwz>* hyb>*hOh&W8ABCRST  E F G H N O ~  h^hgdN & F gdNgdt & Fgd|hgd|hgd2k$a$gdBN , - . / 0 = > y z ( ) gdNLh^hgdNL & FgdNLgdPygd2kh^hgdGEj & F gdGEjgdGEjgd|h & F gd|h    ' : Z [ ] ^ c j l z ]c$jksxܼܸ h/5hZbh5hZbhZb5h&bhZb h.h/hM|h|hMhRhR5 hR5h/hL9hthyhGEjhNLh/hCh|h< ]^cdklgd/ & FgdMgd| & Fgd|h^hgd|h^hgd/ & Fgd/gdMgdRgd2k  UV%&~gd/ & Fgd/gd%h^hgd% & Fgd%h^hgd2+) & FgdPy CgdMgdPyh^hgd/ & Fgd/    TUW|   $17 8Xprtuvz{ƾƶ桙hW$hZbhPy5hMhM5hZbhZb5h&bhLh,L hyb h;(5h/h/5hrhM|h/h&:h%hWh+h;(h2+)h2khPyhhMhZbh5 hM54stuv;< $h^ha$gdPyh^hgdM & FgdMgdM$a$gdPyh^hgdPy & FgdMgdrh^hgd;( 1h/ =!"#$%@@@ PyNormalCJ_HaJmH sH tH DAD Default Paragraph FontRiR  Table Normal4 l4a (k(No List4ABCRST EFGHNO~,-./0=>yz()]^cdk l   UV%&~stuv;<00p00000000 00 00 00 000000 00 00 00 0000000 00 0 0 0 0( 000 0 000000p 00 00 0@0p@ 00 00 00 00  00 0 00000 00p 00 00p 00p 0p0p 00000p 0000p00 0 @0 00@ 0@0@ 0 @00000ABCRSTEFGHNO~,.0)dl &;<000000000 00 00 000000@ 0 00 00 0z0 0z00z0 0z0 0z0 0z00z00z00z0*0z0 0z0 0z0 0z0 0z00z0#00Vz00z00z0+0z0-0z0-0z0/0z0/0:00:00:00:00  -rvsrv$xrvwrvwrv4|rv{rv{rvt{rvrv\rvrvrv|rv<rvrv\rvrvrvrvtSrvrvrvrv rvtrv$rv rvrvrvPrvVIuI~mJ%K-K;BKEeKNL`,M*BM5N5 O&O)}OU;P%QRR;R{R4S*nS TT'#TIT8UAUVUV,VY#W&W5W1BW,X Y%jY~YRZDZ\b ]>]P^pI_~^_)`"aRoa&byb[cc:e] gg hiGi#~iGEj`j/k[lzmWnpnxo@o p]3p5pEpTp>sltut0uUulubvw^'wmw~wMxmxmmyUzwzM|2X|q7}H}h~?%\u`Bil +01<>km^0Op ~6ghOpeU??t~-N v!EwX(\2nE~ux+@*RtNPWO\X)ZG|-9.QNh+F=+\J=@S|Sun sQ}`8GbF""Z0gr-6qR&\b'MI]G]5Mhjv>N:MunrR& =ne2k'mk!$(a Fs|OX)g]|G 1[W6|A:^-Gj{vr)\ZbM=Q@Js 1{ o&Na4KZWJpZWvnDF,&:OQ/!5$6s `,C?FgIhRX8/u2 f c.^R;?W_&BFq?P5=}kL!w{,z 17M&AsZBN O? Pbp>p/Wi.LTo/c"M_jq?SV#vE LI|h*t>g6%WL-2%ANRssxOg0mRkr@@@UnknownGz Times New Roman5Symbol3& z Arial?5 z Courier New;Wingdings"qh2fK&K&Qp`A )`A )!24 3QH-?E.Aspen Valley Downs Lot 4 listed at $22,000,000Christie HendersonChristie Henderson0         Oh+'0 , HT p |  /Aspen Valley Downs Lot 4 listed at $22,000,0001speChristie HendersonLhrihri Normal.dotnChristie HendersonL81iMicrosoft Word 10.0@h3@@4@th@@4`A՜.+,0< hp  % Coates Reid and Waldron Real Estate4)  /Aspen Valley Downs Lot 4 listed at $22,000,000 Title  !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@BCDEFGHJKLMNOPSRoot Entry FFU1TableJWordDocument"4SummaryInformation(ADocumentSummaryInformation8ICompObjj  FMicrosoft Word Document MSWordDocWord.Document.89q